The 2024 U.S. presidential election could have far-reaching implications, potentially shaping the country’s future in a way comparable to the pivotal 1860 election that led to the Civil War. This election could determine whether the United States remains a functioning constitutional republic or transforms into a one-party state.
If Vice President Kamala Harris wins, some believe it will fulfill former President Obama’s 2008 pledge to “fundamentally transform” the United States. Critics argue that a Harris victory could mark the last free and competitive election in the country, setting the stage for one-party rule by 2028, with Democrats maintaining permanent control, much like California’s current political landscape.
A Harris administration would likely pursue several initiatives to solidify this transformation. One of the first moves could involve targeting the Supreme Court, which has been a significant check on Democratic policies. To counter the conservative majority, the administration might seek to “pack” the court by adding more justices aligned with progressive ideologies, thereby diminishing the originalist interpretation of the Constitution.
Another possible strategy could involve altering the structure of the Electoral College. Harris has expressed support for granting statehood to Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico, which would add four Democratic senators and potentially shift the balance of power in Congress in favor of the Democrats, further entrenching one-party control.
The Biden-Harris administration’s policies on immigration could also continue under Harris’ leadership, potentially accelerating illegal immigration. Critics suggest that millions more undocumented immigrants could enter the U.S. under a Harris administration, followed by pathways to citizenship that would further shift the voter base.
On the economic front, Harris might implement federally mandated price controls and increased taxes, including wealth taxes on unrealized gains. Opponents argue this could lead to hyperinflation, a devalued dollar, and a state-controlled economy resembling that of the Chinese Communist Party.
The Department of Justice under Harris could also continue targeting political opponents, building on what critics see as efforts to dismantle the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement by prosecuting key figures like Donald Trump and his allies. Free speech and media freedom could face tighter government controls, further aligning social media and traditional media with state interests, creating an environment reminiscent of George Orwell’s “thought police.”
In terms of foreign policy, Harris might continue Biden’s approach toward China, focusing on engagement rather than confrontation. Critics argue that this could embolden China to take aggressive actions, such as moving against Taiwan, and strain U.S. alliances in both the Indo-Pacific and Europe.
The speed at which Harris could implement these changes would depend largely on control of Congress. If Republicans retain control of the House, they could block many of these initiatives. However, a narrow majority could lead to challenges, as any defections might compromise efforts to oppose Harris’ agenda.
Harris, who will be 59 in 2024, may run for re-election in 2028, potentially cementing the changes initiated during her first term. By 2032, some fear the U.S. could see elections dominated by the Democratic primary, with the Republican Party reduced to a non-competitive force, similar to its status in states like California and New York.
Historically, voters often do not foresee the full impact of their choices, as was the case in 1860 or with Woodrow Wilson’s 1916 campaign. Voters in 2024 may face a similarly consequential decision, potentially leading to a profound transformation of American society and governance.
